Thursday, April 25
Fri
Aug
25

Caught in the Crossfire: How Trade Policy Uncertainty Impacts Global Trade

Speakers:

Anirban SanyalRBI

 
25
August,
2023
03:30 PM to 05:00 PM (IST)

Abstract:-
Trade policy uncertainty impacts firm’s decisions to enter export markets and make new investments. I extend the trade policy uncertainty literature in a multi-country trade model to evaluate the uncertainty effect on global trade flows. The model introduces two sources of uncertainty; namely a policy change probability and tariff size uncertainty. Using these two sources of uncertainty, I argue that the trade policy uncertainty moderates global trade flows and increases domestic price level due to lack of certainty in price distributions. The framework can be generalized to other uncertainties in trade partners. Finally, the model calibration demonstrates that a moderation of trade flows during the recent trade war period can be explained by trade policy uncertainty.

To register for this event please visit the following URL: https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZMufuCurT0rGtETRIYSt_pqmUHI4LKpcRT0 →

Date & Time

25-08-2023
03:30 PM
to 05:00 PM (IST)

Location

Anywhere

Event Type

IEG Seminar

Event Category

Past event

Speaker(s)

Anirban Sanyal

RBI

Moderator(s)

Sandhya Garg

Assistant Professor