Future Market for Agricultural Commodities in India
Since future trade is an inescapable route to the market economy, the uncertainty associated with the future trade in agriculture commodities should reduce. Many of these uncertainties are due to the apprehensions attached to future trade in agriculture. The present study reviews some of the apprehensions related to future trade in agriculture. Subsequently, it tries to analyze the benefits of future trade in specific commodities: gram, wheat, soybean, maize, kharif and rabi with data from the NCDEX. Analysis of prices of these commodities suggests that volatility in the spot market of the majority of referred commodities (wheat, maize rabi, and maize kharif) are higher than the future market. The behaviour of prices with backwardation and contango shows that on the majority of dates analyzed, the spot prices are higher than the future prices of most commodities (except gram). The long-run relation between prices of the above commodities suggests that markets are efficient for commodities other than maize (kharif and rabi).